Chance has graciously agreed to continue writing the occasional blog post even though he no longer works at FCL. I'm extremely grateful as I am not equipped to write about movies! - Julie
For
the first time in years, I’ve never been more uncertain about who will take
home an Academy Award. A Star Is Born taking
home the gold seemed like a cinch, but it’s essentially been shut out at all
the other award shows, outside of “Shallow” sweeping every Best Song category
available (as it should). In its place, the likes of Bohemian Rhapsody, Roma
and Black Panther have been raking in
the wins, and while Roma is
understandable, Bohemian Rhapsody and
Black Panther have been absolute headscratchers, so much so that I’ve
scratched down to my scalp! Despite the “it’s anyone’s game” atmosphere this
year, I’m going to try my best to correctly predict the winners!
Here
we go!
Best Picture:
Of
the eight films nominated this year, only four of them have a serious chance of
winning this category - A Star Is Born,
Roma, The Favourite and Green Book.
If the Academy is feeling safe, they’ll clearly go with Green Book, which has been called this year’s Driving Miss Daisy. But even for a safe choice, Green Book has stirred up some
controversy for… being directed by a white man? It’s a little more than that,
but that’s basically it. Now, if the Academy dares to go off the wall, it will
pick The Favourite, a rather alternative
look at Queen Anne. The Academy openly embraced fish romance last year,
so is it up to going weird again? I’m not so sure. The most serious contender
is A Star Is Born, even if its
chances seem slim. I mostly say it’s a serious contender because I believe the
Academy will try to atone for Bradley Cooper not getting nominated for Best
Director - they may do that by picking him for Best Actor, though. A Star Is Born has also had several
members of the Academy come to its defense, most notably Sean Penn, so that
could work in its favor, as well. As for Roma,
I think it has higher odds to win Best Foreign Film rather than Best Film, but
the Academy could split the vote by choosing Pawel Pawlikowski’s Cold War for Best Foreign Film and Roma for Best Film - I think it’d be
unfair for Roma to win both, but
that’s just my opinion.
Winner
Prediction: A Star Is Born
Best Actor:
Rami
Malek has been picking up this award for most of the awards season, but I think
his luck will run out on Oscar night. Method actor Christian Bale, who
transformed into Dick Cheney by gaining weight and shaving his head, checks
every single box for Best Actor winner - the Academy is a sucker for
transformative performances! However, Bradley Cooper does have a strong chance
of stealing the award in the form of a “vote of confidence” vote.
Winner
Prediction: Christian Bale for Vice
Best Actress:
I strongly believe Lady Gaga deserves
Best Actress, but, alas, the Academy didn’t give Judy Garland the Oscar for her
performance in 1954’s A Star Is Born,
so the award here will most likely end up in Glenn Close’s lap as a “legacy”
award - meaning she’s been nominated for an Oscar six times already, so it’s
about time she actually won one. Oh well, Gaga’s going to win Best Original
Song for “Shallow”, so she’s going to be up on that stage, either way!
Winner
Prediction: Glenn Close for The Wife
Best Supporting Actor:
It’s
really just between Sam Elliott and Mahershala Ali here, with Elliott edging
Ali out by simply backing up a truck with tears in his eyes. Watch A Star Is Born and you’ll see what I
mean!
Winner
Prediction: Sam Elliott for A Star Is
Born
Best Supporting Actress:
While
Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are strong contenders, it never ends well when you
have two actress in the same movie competing for the same award - like when
Anne Baxter and Bette Davis were both nominated for Best Actress for All About Eve… oof! I’ll never forgive
Anne for that. Anyways, I think the split in the votes will allow Regina King
to swoop in and claim victory. If not, then it will be Weisz.
Winner
Prediction: Regina King for If Beale
Street Could Talk
Best Director:
This
very well could be Spike Lee’s year, but he has strong competition in Alfonso
Cuarón and Pawel Pawlikowski for their black and white foreign films. Cuarón is
basically a shoo-in, unless the Academy opts to award him with Best
Cinematography (he’s got that category in the bag) and give Best Director to
Pawlikowski or Lee.
Winner
Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón for Roma
Best Animated Film:
Disney
has two horses in this race, Incredibles
2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet, but they don’t stand a chance next to Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse...
unless Disney buys the vote.
Winner
Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the
Spider-Verse
So,
am I totally clued-in? Or totally clueless? We’ll find out Sunday!
