Chance's Corner : Oscars Season 2018

Chance has graciously agreed to continue writing the occasional blog post even though he no longer works at FCL.  I'm extremely grateful as I am not equipped to write about movies! - Julie

For the first time in years, I’ve never been more uncertain about who will take home an Academy Award. A Star Is Born taking home the gold seemed like a cinch, but it’s essentially been shut out at all the other award shows, outside of “Shallow” sweeping every Best Song category available (as it should). In its place, the likes of Bohemian Rhapsody, Roma and Black Panther have been raking in the wins, and while Roma is understandable, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther have been absolute headscratchers, so much so that I’ve scratched down to my scalp! Despite the “it’s anyone’s game” atmosphere this year, I’m going to try my best to correctly predict the winners!

Here we go!

Best Picture:

Of the eight films nominated this year, only four of them have a serious chance of winning this category - A Star Is Born, Roma, The Favourite and Green Book. If the Academy is feeling safe, they’ll clearly go with Green Book, which has been called this year’s Driving Miss Daisy. But even for a safe choice, Green Book has stirred up some controversy for… being directed by a white man? It’s a little more than that, but that’s basically it. Now, if the Academy dares to go off the wall, it will pick The Favourite, a rather alternative look at Queen Anne. The Academy openly embraced fish romance last year, so is it up to going weird again? I’m not so sure. The most serious contender is A Star Is Born, even if its chances seem slim. I mostly say it’s a serious contender because I believe the Academy will try to atone for Bradley Cooper not getting nominated for Best Director - they may do that by picking him for Best Actor, though. A Star Is Born has also had several members of the Academy come to its defense, most notably Sean Penn, so that could work in its favor, as well. As for Roma, I think it has higher odds to win Best Foreign Film rather than Best Film, but the Academy could split the vote by choosing Pawel Pawlikowski’s Cold War for Best Foreign Film and Roma for Best Film - I think it’d be unfair for Roma to win both, but that’s just my opinion.

Winner Prediction: A Star Is Born

Best Actor:

Rami Malek has been picking up this award for most of the awards season, but I think his luck will run out on Oscar night. Method actor Christian Bale, who transformed into Dick Cheney by gaining weight and shaving his head, checks every single box for Best Actor winner - the Academy is a sucker for transformative performances! However, Bradley Cooper does have a strong chance of stealing the award in the form of a “vote of confidence” vote.

Winner Prediction: Christian Bale for Vice

Best Actress:

I strongly believe Lady Gaga deserves Best Actress, but, alas, the Academy didn’t give Judy Garland the Oscar for her performance in 1954’s A Star Is Born, so the award here will most likely end up in Glenn Close’s lap as a “legacy” award - meaning she’s been nominated for an Oscar six times already, so it’s about time she actually won one. Oh well, Gaga’s going to win Best Original Song for “Shallow”, so she’s going to be up on that stage, either way!

Winner Prediction: Glenn Close for The Wife

Best Supporting Actor:

It’s really just between Sam Elliott and Mahershala Ali here, with Elliott edging Ali out by simply backing up a truck with tears in his eyes. Watch A Star Is Born and you’ll see what I mean!

Winner Prediction: Sam Elliott for A Star Is Born

Best Supporting Actress:

While Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are strong contenders, it never ends well when you have two actress in the same movie competing for the same award - like when Anne Baxter and Bette Davis were both nominated for Best Actress for All About Eve… oof! I’ll never forgive Anne for that. Anyways, I think the split in the votes will allow Regina King to swoop in and claim victory. If not, then it will be Weisz.

Winner Prediction: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Director:

This very well could be Spike Lee’s year, but he has strong competition in Alfonso Cuarón and Pawel Pawlikowski for their black and white foreign films. Cuarón is basically a shoo-in, unless the Academy opts to award him with Best Cinematography (he’s got that category in the bag) and give Best Director to Pawlikowski or Lee.

Winner Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón for Roma

Best Animated Film:

 

Disney has two horses in this race, Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet,  but they don’t stand a chance next to Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse... unless Disney buys the vote.

Winner Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

So, am I totally clued-in? Or totally clueless? We’ll find out Sunday!